Publication

Over 800 million people in Africa, Asia and Latin America live in slum conditions, although there is wide variation in 'slum incidence' across countries. To account for the scale and diversity of the slum phenomenon, this report tests a 'disjointed modernization' theory using OLS regression analysis and finds that 70% of contemporary variation in slum incidence is explained by demographic, economic and institutional factors. Focusing on sub-Saharan Africa, divergent urban development trajectories are traced back to the colonial era and mechanisms of path dependency are identified, namely the emergence of status quo interests and the rise of an anti-urbanization bias in development discourse.