New Security Arc in Mideast

This article was external pageoriginally publishedcall_made by the external pageInstitut für Strategie- Politik- Sicherheits- und Wirtschaftsberatung (ISPSW)call_made in December 2016.

Abstract

With the recent Saudi-Egypt rift over Syria, and Cairo's pivot towards Russia and Iran, a new security arc is emerging in the Middle East. The arc consists of Iran, Iraq, Syria, backed by Russia and China, with Egypt, Turkey and Jordan slowly aligning with the arc to counter Salafi terrorism. In contrast, the US-led coalition with Saudi Arabia and Qatar are focused on supporting Salafi jihadists to conduct regime change. As Egypt, a large Sunni Arab country pivots to Eurasia, Riyadh's argument that the Syrian war is a sectarian conflict is no longer valid, and presents an opportunity for realignment in the Middle East with China as a crucial new player.

Analysis

With so much focus on the battle in Aleppo, there has been little attention on the Saudi-Egypt rift in the media. And along with this western blind spot is China’s rising influence as a crucial player in Egypt and the Middle East.

Saudi-Egypt spat over Syria

The Riyadh-Cairo spat began in April 2016, when Egypt’s Sisi agreed to cede territorial integrity over two of its islands, in exchange for a series of lucrative contracts and promise of Riyadh’s diplomatic support. The two islands, Tiran and Sanafir, are strategically located at the southern entry of the Gulf of Aqaba, where both Israel and Jordan maintain important ports.

This subsequently unleashed outrage among the Egyptian population, with former presidential hopeful (2014) Hamdeen Sabahi denouncing it violated Egyptian Constitution to cede territory, and attacks on Sisi’s legitimacy for subjugating the once proud Arab nation of Egypt to the Saudis. In June, the Egyptian court nullified the deal, only to be overturned in September, with the possibility of being appealed once more. Currently it is still unclear whether the two islands will remain with Egypt or be annexed by Saudi Arabia, punctuating what Issandr El Amrani¹ from the International Crisis Group describes as a relationship “based on a kind of asymmetric passive-aggressive perpetual renegotiation.”

The rift widened in October. Following the September discussion between Iran and Egypt’s foreign ministers on the sidelines of the UN General assembly, Tehran invited Egypt to join international talks over Syria, and days later Cairo voted for Russia’s UN Security Council resolution that backed the Syrian government. In turn, this prompted Riyadh to punish Cairo’s perceived intransigence, by cutting off 700,000 tons of refined oil products as part of $23 billion deal signed earlier this year.

Whatever happened to the Saudi-Egyptian “Camp of Stability”?

In the past, Cairo enjoyed good ties with Riyadh. However, after King Abdullah passed on and was replaced by King Salman who is friendlier towards the Muslim Brotherhood – which Egypt considers a terrorist group – Sisi began to distance Egypt from the pro-Islamist axis of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar in the Middle East. The Obama administration’s support for the Brotherhood further fuels Egypt’s sense of betrayal, compounded by GOP threats to cut off aid over Sisi’s anti-democratic legislations, and austere IMF conditions of rolling back energy subsidies that could further destabilize Egypt in midst of waves of terrorist attacks.

Unlike Washington, Sisi recognizes that foreign support for the Muslim Brotherhood and increasing terrorism in Sinai threaten the Suez Canal’s stability, which is inextricably tied to Egypt’s own economic development and future. According to military sources, Morsi’s collaboration with Sinai jihadi groups was a source of their disagreement and eventual fallout. Indeed, with $5 billion a year in revenues from the Canal, it is a vital source of hard currency for a country that has suffered a slump in tourism and foreign investment since 2011.

Moreover, Sisi sees Assad as a secular bulwark against Islamic extremism in the Levant. If Assad falls, Lebanon and Jordan would be next, and Egypt does not want to end up like Libya with the Brotherhood and other Islamists carving up the country. In response, Cairo is turning towards Russia and Iran, and forming what former Oxford University scholar Sharmine Narwani describes as a new “Security Arc” in midst of Mideast terror.